Q1 2026 report
Skokowy wzrost zysków w I kw. 2026 (EBIT +75%, zysk netto +94% r/r) napędzany głównie eskalacją wojny USA/Izrael–Iran, która podbiła notowania ropy Brent o ponad 50% i marżę rafineryjną CEE o 8,1 USD/bbl r/r (do 17,0 USD/bbl) — to efekt makro, nie strukturalna poprawa biznesu.
Sentiment
Neutral
No guidance change
PKN
Q1 2026 report
Revenue
75,769 m PLN
— YoY
Net income
8,079 m PLN
— YoY
EBITDA
14,857 m PLN
— YoY
Gross margin
24.17%
— YoY
Summary
Investment thesis
- Segment Downstream odbił się z ujemnego EBIT rok wcześniej (-956 mln PLN) do dodatniego 2 824 mln PLN, mimo porównywalnych odpisów z tytułu utraty wartości petrochemii w obu okresach (1 129 vs 1 255 mln PLN) — bez odpisów segment byłby jeszcze mocniejszy.
- Konwersja zysku na gotówkę pogorszyła się drastycznie: OCF spadł z 15 675 do 8 468 mln PLN r/r mimo wyższego zysku, a FCF skurczył się z 8 939 do 1 600 mln PLN — głównie przez wzrost należności handlowych (+3 933 mln PLN drenażu kapitału obrotowego) i wypłatę depozytów zabezpieczających (-3 916 mln PLN).
- Bilans pozostaje silny: pozycja gotówki netto, current ratio 1,37, dług oprocentowany ~18% kapitału własnego, ETR 27% (podwyższone przez opodatkowanie Norwegii na poziomie 78%, ale niżej niż 35% rok wcześniej).
- Zarząd rekomenduje dywidendę 8,00 PLN/akcję (9,3 mld PLN) za 2025 rok, WZA 9 czerwca 2026 — potwierdza priorytet zwrotu kapitału mimo dużego CAPEX-u (Nowa Chemia, budżet zaktualizowany do 35,8 mld PLN).
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Financials
BETA
PKN · Q1 2026
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Δ YoY | Value type | Segment | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75,769 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Gross profit | 18,308 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| EBITDA | 14,857 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| EBIT | 11,667 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| EBT | 11,175 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Net income | 8,079 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| EPS (basic) (PLN) | 6.96 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| EPS (diluted) (PLN) | 6.96 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| D&A | 3,190 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Interest expense | 155 | — | — | reported | — | 0.60 |
| Shares (basic) (m units) | 1,160.94 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Shares (diluted) (m units) | 1,160.94 | — | — | reported | — | 0.70 |
| Gross margin | 24.17% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBITDA margin | 19.61% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBIT margin | 15.4% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBT margin | 14.75% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Net margin | 10.66% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| D&A margin | 4.21% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Cash | 28,106 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Total debt | 26,335 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Net debt | -1,771 | — | — | derived | — | 0.70 |
| Equity | 147,974 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Total assets | 279,567 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Working capital | 24,965 | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Current assets | 93,040 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Current liabilities | 68,075 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Goodwill | 8,138 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| Tangible equity | 139,836 | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| CFO | 8,468 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| CapEx | 6,868 | — | — | reported | — | 1.00 |
| FCF | 1,600 | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| FCF conversion | 10.77% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| CFO conversion | 57% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Current ratio | 1.37x | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Quick ratio | 1.08x | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Cash ratio | 0.41x | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Interest coverage | 75.27x | — | — | derived | — | 0.60 |
| Debt / equity | 0.18x | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Debt / assets | 0.09x | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Net debt / equity | -0.01x | — | — | derived | — | 0.70 |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 2.88% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBITDA growth (YoY) | 48.27% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBIT growth (YoY) | 74.85% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Net income growth (YoY) | 94.28% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 94.41% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| FCF growth (YoY) | -82.1% | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Gross margin Δ (YoY) | 6.56 pp | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBITDA margin Δ (YoY) | 6.01 pp | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| EBIT margin Δ (YoY) | 6.34 pp | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
| Net margin Δ (YoY) | 5.02 pp | — | — | derived | — | 1.00 |
Q1 2026 · Δ YoY
Revenue
75,769
—
75,769
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Gross profit
18,308
—
18,308
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBITDA
14,857
—
14,857
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBIT
11,667
—
11,667
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBT
11,175
—
11,175
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net income
8,079
—
8,079
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EPS (basic)
(PLN)
6.96
—
6.96
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EPS (diluted)
(PLN)
6.96
—
6.96
—
- Q1 2025
- —
D&A
3,190
—
3,190
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Interest expense
155
—
155
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Shares (basic)
(m units)
1,160.94
—
1,160.94
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Shares (diluted)
(m units)
1,160.94
—
1,160.94
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Gross margin
24.17%
—
24.17%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBITDA margin
19.61%
—
19.61%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBIT margin
15.4%
—
15.4%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBT margin
14.75%
—
14.75%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net margin
10.66%
—
10.66%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
D&A margin
4.21%
—
4.21%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Cash
28,106
—
28,106
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Total debt
26,335
—
26,335
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net debt
-1,771
—
-1,771
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Equity
147,974
—
147,974
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Total assets
279,567
—
279,567
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Working capital
24,965
—
24,965
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Current assets
93,040
—
93,040
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Current liabilities
68,075
—
68,075
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Goodwill
8,138
—
8,138
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Tangible equity
139,836
—
139,836
—
- Q1 2025
- —
CFO
8,468
—
8,468
—
- Q1 2025
- —
CapEx
6,868
—
6,868
—
- Q1 2025
- —
FCF
1,600
—
1,600
—
- Q1 2025
- —
FCF conversion
10.77%
—
10.77%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
CFO conversion
57%
—
57%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Current ratio
1.37x
—
1.37x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Quick ratio
1.08x
—
1.08x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Cash ratio
0.41x
—
0.41x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Interest coverage
75.27x
—
75.27x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Debt / equity
0.18x
—
0.18x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Debt / assets
0.09x
—
0.09x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net debt / equity
-0.01x
—
-0.01x
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.88%
—
2.88%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBITDA growth (YoY)
48.27%
—
48.27%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBIT growth (YoY)
74.85%
—
74.85%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net income growth (YoY)
94.28%
—
94.28%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EPS growth (YoY)
94.41%
—
94.41%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
FCF growth (YoY)
-82.1%
—
-82.1%
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Gross margin Δ (YoY)
6.56 pp
—
6.56 pp
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBITDA margin Δ (YoY)
6.01 pp
—
6.01 pp
—
- Q1 2025
- —
EBIT margin Δ (YoY)
6.34 pp
—
6.34 pp
—
- Q1 2025
- —
Net margin Δ (YoY)
5.02 pp
—
5.02 pp
—
- Q1 2025
- —